The Russian grain-2018. We will collect less, we will sell more dearly

The current state of the grain market is beneficial for Russia. Unfavorable climatic conditions, including abroad, contribute to the expectations of a lower harvest compared to last year, when in Russia it was a record. Therefore, the rise in prices can compensate manufacturers and grain traders expected by the Ministry of Agriculture of the loss of grain due to bad weather, it follows from the estimates of experts interviewed by RIA Novosti.

Gross harvest of grain in Russia is projected within 100m tons, including wheat - 64.4m tons. Last year, Russia received a record grain harvest in its entire history - 135.4m tons, including 85.9m tons of wheat. The grain harvest in 2016 was 120.7m tons. Export of grain crops in 2017-2018 agricultural year amounted to 52.422m tons, including 40.449m tons of wheat. The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation expects that in the current season, grain exports from Russia will be 44-45m tons.

Now export prices are growing dynamically due to a decrease in gross grain harvest in the world and a deterioration in the crop quality. "Export prices for supply and demand for Russian wheat with a protein content of more than 12.5%, with delivery in August to the previous week, increased by $ 8 per tonne - to $ 227 per tonne," Igor Pavensky, head of Rusagrotrans Сenter, said. The expert explained that the forecasts for harvest in France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries because of the drought are falling. In addition, the forecast in Ukraine is lowered, there is also a problem with grain quality.

European Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development Phil Hogan said on Thursday he was very concerned about the drought situation in the EU countries. In his opinion, in particular, the prolonged drought in some countries of the Union has a significant impact on the arable crops production. According to the forecast of meteorologists in Germany, the current dry and hot weather in Western, Central and Northern Europe can last a few more weeks.

Igor Pavensky notes that domestic prices for Russian grain are also growing, mainly in the south. "In the domestic market, the average EXW prices for fourth grade wheat in the south increased to 10.5-10.7 thousand RUR ($ 165.47 - 168.62) per ton on the basis of the ex-granary excluding VAT, which is more by 400-500 RUR ($ 6.3 - 7.88) per ton compared to last week", the analyst noted.

Director general ProZerno Vladimir Petrichenko also notes the positive price conjuncture. "Trends in the market are very optimistic and dynamic for grain manufacturers and grain traders. As for the European Union, and this is one of our main competitors, the prices for French wheat are now at a three-year high. This external background inspires optimism in our prices. For a long time we did not have our wheat worth $ 220," Petrichenko said.

Based on agrovesti.net.

Omsky Biocluster Press Service
4 August 2018