If China opens to Russian producers, pork exports could grow by more than 50% and exceed 300,000 tons in 2021. This forecast was given by Andrey Dalnov, head of the Center for Industry Expertise of the Russian Agricultural Bank, speaking at the XII International Scientific and Practical Conference 'Pig Breeding 2020'.
"Opening the Chinese market for Russian producers will increase the supply of pork abroad by more than 50% from 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons next year. Otherwise, exports will grow at a relatively low rate of 10-20% due to the increase in supplies to current markets. and gradual penetration into new secondary markets following the example of poultry meat producers ", comments the head of the Center Andrey Dalnov.
This year, Hong Kong and Vietnam have become the largest importing countries of Russian pork, which together account for 60% of all exports from Russia, according to the Center. Access of Russian pork to the Vietnamese market was opened at the end of 2019, and throughout 2020, domestic producers were actively increasing shipments to Vietnam. According to the Center's calculations, an increase in export shipments will not have a negative impact on the level of meat consumption in Russia.
At the same time, the consumption of pork can grow from 28 to 29 kilograms per person, and the consumption of poultry meat will stabilize at the level of 35 kilograms per person, says Andrey Dalnov. According to the Center, last year Russia reached a record for meat consumption per capita - 76 kilograms per person, and in 2020 a new increase in consumption is expected to reach 77-78 kilograms per person. "We see that the load on the market is increasing, domestic prices are decreasing relative to prices in other markets, motivating producers to increase exports, " explains Dalnov. According to the Center's estimates, in 2020, exports of meat and meat products will increase by 70% compared to last year and will amount to about 600,000 tons, which will also set a new record for the Russian market. The structure of export supplies will be dominated by poultry meat (about 300,000 tons) and pork (about 200,000 tons). The value of shipped products may exceed $ 1 billion for the first time.
Source: agroxxi.ru.
