Last week, grain prices continued to rise in Russia, while in some regions there was an active increase in the cost of food rye, according to the National Union of Grain Producers.
In the Central Federal District, wheat has risen in price in the range from 150 to 300RUR / ton ($ 2.27 - 4.53), fodder barley and corn - by 300RUR / ton ($ 4.53), and food rye - by 400RUR / ton ($ 6.04). In the south of the country, food wheat of the 4th class added 75RUR / ton ($ 1.13), feed wheat 50RUR / ton ($ 0.76), corn for grain 150RUR / ton ($ 2.27). In the Volga region, the price of wheat of the 3rd and 4th class, as well as fodder barley increased by an average of 100RUR / ton ($ 1.51), wheat of the 5th class - by 200 RUR / ton ($ 3.02). At the same time, the cost of food rye and corn for grain increased by 250RUR / ton ($ 3.78). In the Urals, the price of food wheat increased in the range from 350 to 750RUR / ton ($ 5.29 - 11.33). At the same time, the rise in prices for 5th grade wheat and fodder barley amounted to 500 and 550RUR / ton ($ 7.55 - 8.31), respectively. In Siberia, wheat of the 3rd and 4th class went up by 100-150RUR / ton ($ 1.51 - 2.27), feed barley - by 150RUR / ton ($ 2.27), and food rye - by 400RUR / ton ($ 6.04).
In the meantime, speculations on the potential limitations of Russian grain exports affect the global markets, still contributing to the growth of export prices for wheat in the Russian Federation. Thus, the price of a ton of wheat with 12.5 percent protein content in Novorossiysk rose by Friday to $ 228 from $ 224 free-board by Friday. SovEcon recorded an increase in the price of this class of wheat by $ 3 to $ 229 per ton freeboard. "Additional support for the prices was provided by the activation of the Rosselkhoznadzor during the week in the southern regions," the agency analysts said.
As traders note, the Rosselkhoznadzor from October 5 checks wheat shipments for delivery to Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Nigeria and Sudan for up to 11 days. Bidders consider this to be unofficial measures to restrict or slow down exports, which is only accelerating so far. "Representatives of the department several times stated that its activation was not connected with the desire to restrict exports. However, a significant part of market participants took the checks with alarm. Traders fear that this is another step towards the introduction of unofficial restrictions on the export of grain," writes SovEcon.
In September, grain exports amounted to 5.0M tons, including 4.5M tons of wheat. "We expected markedly lower rates - 4.5M tons of grain and 4M tons of wheat. This acceleration is probably due not only to more active shipments, but also to the fact that the operational customs statistics with a lag reflect real sales, significantly differing from data from the ports," writes SovEcon. Since the beginning of the 2017/18 MY, Russia has exported 15.7M tons of grain, which is 26.2% more than the same period last season. Exports of wheat amounted to 13.5M tons (39.5% more), barley - 1.8M tons (8.6% less), corn - 459K tons (45.2% less).
Meanwhile, on October 9, grain and leguminous crops in Russia were threshed from an area of 41.8M ha or 93.2% of the harvesting area (in 2017 - 43M ha). 106.8M tons of grain was harvested (in 2017 - 128.9M tons), with a yield of 25.6 c / ha, which is 4.4 c / ha less than on the same date last year (in 2017 - 30 c / ha), according to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. Winter and spring wheat is threshed from an area of 25.4M ha or 95.8% to the harvesting area (in 2017 - 26.4M ha), total 71.4M tons (in 2017 - 85.9M tons), with a yield of 28.1 c / ha (in 2017 - 32.6 c / ha). Winter and spring barley is threshed from an area of 7.7M ha or 96.7% of the harvesting area (in 2017 - 7.6M ha), total 17.3M tons (in 2017 - 21.2M tons ), with a yield of 22.4 c / ha (in 2017 - 28 c / ha).
Source: agroobzor.ru.
