Pessimistic forecasts of low wheat yield in Russia this year may be incorrect. The harvesting of barley, which is an indicator of the wheat harvest, which started last week, demonstrates quite good rates. As a consequence, the previously growing export prices for Russian wheat fell by $ 3.5, to $ 202.5 per tonne (FOB).
Andrei Sizov, director of SOVECON, notes that the growth in export prices for wheat from Russia, observed since the end of May, was largely due to overestimated fears of serious crop problems in Russia and Ukraine. But last week grain harvesting started, and it became clear that the most pessimistic estimates of the new harvest, especially in Russia, are not confirmed, which was also reflected in prices. SOVECON estimates the grain harvest in Russia in 2018 at 119.6 million tons, including 73.1 million tons of wheat. The forecast of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) is 114 million tons and 71.5 million tons, respectively. In 2017, according to Rosstat estimates, Russia collected a record 135.4 million tons of grain, including 85.8 million tons of wheat.
If further observations confirm good prospects for a new grain harvest in Russia, export prices for wheat in the coming weeks may fall to $ 200 per tonne and below, Andrei Sizov predicts. According to the Director General of IKAR Dmitry Rylko, the prospects for harvesting wheat in the Kuban are seen as very good, and in this region IKAR expects yields close to the record of the previous year. But in general, Rylko warns, the harvest in the south will be lower than last year: in Rostov and Volgograd regions, Stavropol Territory the drought will be much more pronounced.
Source: agroobzor.ru.
