The National Meat Union expects a decrease in the wholesale price of pork in 2019 by 7-9%, and then another 3-5% in 2020 due to an increase in domestic production. This assessment was provided by the head of the National Meat Union Sergey Yushin.
"According to our estimates, the average annual wholesale price of 2019 will be approximately 7-9% lower than the price of 2018. In 2020, the decline may reach another 3-5%," Yushin said. According to him, this year the seasonal decline in pork prices began earlier than always. “Usually the decline took place around the beginning of September, but this year due to the fact that the weather was not very in July, it’s cold, one can say, and because the barbecue season broke, it happened earlier. In addition, high growth rates lead to the fact that wholesale prices began to decline earlier, and are falling substantially," the head of the National Meat Union explained. According to him, as a result, now the average annual and seasonal for these products are lower than last year by an average of 5%.
Yushin recalled that competition in the pork market is constantly tightening and next year Russia will put into operation capacities for processing about 300,000 tons of pork in slaughter weight, which will be the largest increase over the past 15 years. “Of course, this is good news for the consumer, but we must take into account the factor that over the past year and a half the cost has risen significantly, primarily because of the cost of feed and, of course, the price situation in the industry will be quite complicated. Enterprises will need to constantly look for reserves to reduce costs," Yushin said. At the same time, he noted that it is difficult to predict exactly how the decline in wholesale prices will affect retail. “It’s useless to talk about retail, because we have different store formats, they have different matrices, different margins, different sale conditions, different number of promotions, so it’s pointless, but naturally, retail one way or another ultimately reflects the dynamics in the wholesale link," the head of the National Meat Union explained.
He did not rule out that low pork prices would indirectly put pressure on poultry meat. "These two types of animal protein are generally interconnected, so today the average wholesale prices for poultry at the end of August are about 10% lower than at the beginning of the year," Yushin said. At the same time, average annual prices for poultry will depend on pork, however, most likely, they will remain at the same level due to the high cost of production associated with the price of soybean meal and grain.
Source: piginfo.ru.
