Industry At A Glance analysts said they made the most accurate forecast without downplaying the ASF impact of on the global market; they meticulously analyzed reports on pork production from 2010 to 2019, forming a forecast for 2020.
The pork deficit in China is likely to fluctuate between 22-25 million tons. As before, China will produce more pork than the United States or Europe, but its share in total production will fall (before ASF, China produced almost 50% of world pork production).
The year 2014 saw the peak of pork production in China (58.2 million tons). In 2020, the volume will decrease to 34.8 million tons, the difference compared to 2014 will be 23.4 million tons. Thus, China will produce less than 40% of the total production in the world. The year 2018 was characterized by the peak of pork production in the world (in total, 109 million tons were produced). In 2020, production may drop to 91.1 million tons, or more if Chinese pig farmers keep and grow more sows to restore the national herd.
Due to the shortage of pork, consumer interest in other types of meat, in particular chicken and beef, will increase, which will negatively affect all markets and make confusion in trade negotiations.
Source: meatinfo.ru.
