Reducing the supply of pork in the domestic market and the ongoing trade war with the United States could lead to a sharp rise in pork prices, officials say. ASF in China creates a storm in the domestic pork market, and representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture are already predicting a 70% jump in pork prices, according to Nikkei Asian Review.
Despite efforts to curb the spread of African swine fever (ASF), 60% of pig farms in China are small enterprises that simply are not able to increase their biological safety. This, of course, will soon push them out of business, but so far only contributes to the spread of the virus throughout the country, said Dr. Hanchun Yang, a professor at China Agricultural University in Beijing. In April, China's pig herd decreased by 21% compared with the same month last year, according to a Rabobank report. With such a pace, the reduction of the pig head in China may even surpass the forecasts of analysts of USDA and Rabobank.
At the same time, the trade war between the US and Chinese authorities led to a decrease in the volume of pork deliveries from the US to China due to a 60% duty imposed by China on American pork products. Jim Long, president and CEO of Genesus Inc., predicts that prices for pork in the Chinese market will begin to grow as early as next month, as China is depleting its pig stocks. According to Mr. Long, the decline in Chinese breeding herds will be much more serious than what is currently predicted, about 50% (-20 million sows). This will also increase the demand for breeding stock in China.
Source: piginfo.ru.
