The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service has published updated forecasts for yields and stocks of cereals (wheat, barley and corn) in foreign markets (https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Moscow_Russian%20Federation_4-23-2018.pdf).
FAS/Moscow’s forecast for 2018 corn production is 16.4 MMT, 3.2 MMT more than MY 2017/18. The forecast assumes that corn production area will increase to 3.32 million HA, 10 percent more than in MY 2017/18. Post forecasts that the 2018 corn yields will be approximately at the five-year average of 4.94 MT/HA, and the corn production will achieve 16.4 MMT given normal weather conditions. Post forecasts that Russia will export 6.8 MMT of corn in MY 2018/19, 2 MMT more than the MY 2017/18 estimate due to improved supply. FAS/Moscow forecasts corn consumption for feed to increase in MY 2018/19 to 8.5 MMT, 700 TMT more than in MY 2017/18 due to improved supply and increased use in poultry sector. Total corn consumption is forecast at 9.55 MMT in MY2018/19. FAS/Moscow forecasts ending corn stocks in MY 2018/19 at 467 TMT compared to 367 TMT in the end of MY 2017/18.
FAS/Moscow estimates harvested area for barley in MY 2018/19 to increase to 8.65 million HA, 798,000 HA more than in MY 2017/18. Post estimates the total barley crop in MY 2018/19 at 19.3 million MT, 880 TMT less than in MY 2017/18. Post forecasts that given normal weather conditions barley yield will be at the five-year average of 2.23 MT/HA, i.e. 17 percent lower than in MY 2017/18. Post forecasts that Russia will export 4.5 MMT of barley in MY 2018/19, 700 TMT less than the MY 2017/18 estimate due to smaller production. Barley feed consumption will increase by 100 TMT in MY 2018/19. FAS/Moscow forecasts ending stocks in MY 2018/19 at 531 TMT compared to 781 TMT at the end of MY 2017/18.
FAS/Moscow estimates total area sown for wheat in MY 2018/19 will decrease to 26 million HA, 1.3 million HA less than in MY 2017/18. Average yield will be 10 percent higher than the five-year average. Post estimates total wheat crop in MY 2018/19 at 74 million MT, 11 MMT lower than in MY 2017/18. Post estimates that Russia will export 36 MMT of wheat in MY 2018/19, down 1.5 MMT from MY 2017/18. FAS/Moscow forecasts total wheat consumption in Russia to decline in MY 2018/19 by 1 MMT. Food Seed and Industrial consumption will decline due to decreasing flour production. FAS/Moscow forecasts ending stocks in MY 2018/19 at 8.3 MMT, a 5.5 MMT decrease from 13.82 MMT forecast in the end of MY 2017/18.
Experts noted that Omsk region was one of the leaders of spring crop sowing area for wheat, barley, corn and oats in 2017 (1.985 million HA, second after Altai Territory with 1.909 million HA).
Based on USDA FAS.
