According to the EU agricultural forecast for 2019-30, meat consumption per capita in the EU has so far shown an upward trend. But by 2030, meat consumption in the EU is expected to decline from 69.8 kg to 68.7 kg per capita.
After the economic crisis and recession in 2013 (due to the restructuring of the dairy sector, new regulations affecting the pig sector and the meat deficit in general), meat consumption has improved markedly since 2013 (+ 4.7 kg per capita until 2019). A similar situation is associated with an improvement in the economic situation for households and sufficient supplies of all categories of meat, despite growing export volumes.
The reasons for the decline in meat consumption in Europe are the following: growing social and ethical problems, environmental and climate problems, claims about the dangers of meat to health, an aging European population (smaller portions) and a decrease in the availability of meat in the domestic market. The overall decline will be accompanied by a shift in the consumer basket. Beef consumption is expected to continue to decline. Meanwhile, the current substitution of pork for poultry meat consumption will be even faster due to increased demand for imported pork in Asia.
Lamb consumption is expected to increase slightly due to changes in the structure of the meat diet and changes in the EU population (religious beliefs and migration). Other trends in meat consumption should be taken into account: changes in diet (flexitarians, vegetarians and vegans), especially among young consumers; the growing importance that consumers attach to the origin of meat and how it was produced (organics, animal welfare, environmental impact); the transition from fresh meat to processed meat and processed foods.
Laboratory-grown meat may be a competitor for real meat, but consumer acceptance and environmental impacts are unclear. In general, the downward trend in public statistics is not yet visible. Multidirectional trends in EU member states make assessment at EU level even more difficult. Although the factors outlined above are very likely to lead to a trend towards a decrease in meat consumption, the exact timing of the trend change is difficult to predict.
