The expectation of a high harvest in the country (experts predict from 105 to 115 million tons) began to influence the market. According to Rusagrotrans, the prices for fourth-grade wheat for the last two months dropped 300-400 rubles / t in the southern and central regions, while in Siberia for third-class wheat fell by 700 rubles per ton.
According to Igor Pavensky, deputy director of the strategic marketing department of Rusagrotrans, the prices for a new crop are now at the level of $ 170-173 per ton of wheat with a protein of 12.5 percent (FOB), which is the same as in July 2016. "However, we must take into account that the ruble rate is now substantially higher (56 rubles / $ 1 against 68 rubles / $ 1 year ago and 64 rubles / $ 1 in July 2016.) This will exert additional pressure on domestic prices, which by August сan be adjusted by 700-1000 rubles per tonne and more downwards."
According to the analytical company ProZerno, in mid-April, wheat of the third class cost about 9.6 thousand rubles / ton versus 10.4 thousand rubles / ton a year earlier, the fourth class - 8.1 thousand rubles / ton ,against almost 9.9 thousand rubles per ton. Most of all, fodder wheat has fallen in price - from 9.5 thousand rubles per ton in April 2016 to 7.2 thousand rubles per ton. Also, food rye and fodder barley dropped considerably - minus 1,9 thousand rubles / ton to 7,3 thousand rubles / ton and minus 2 thousand rubles / ton up to 7,1 thousand rubles / ton, respectively (all prices are EXW).
President of National Grain Union Pavel Skurikhin:
"High initial stocks, lower export rates than last season, as well as the active sale by the agrarians of grain residues (own revenue remains the only reliable source of financing for spring field work due to the reduction of state support), in the near future will lead to an even greater drop in prices".
Source: agroinvestor.ru.
